Dear friends,
As a break from the gloom-and-doom-mongering that has overwhelmed investors of late, I thought I'd share a simple reminder: Long-term investors have a lot more to be happy about than they currently realize. I’m neither ignoring nor sugar-coating the blood-letting that began a year ago and accelerated madly in the last month. As someone who tends to invest rather more boldly than most, I suspect that my portfolio has lost a fair chunk more than most.
That having been said, I’m consigned to live my life – and make my investments – in the future. And, frankly, the future looks a lot brighter now than it did a year ago. A year ago, Morningstar’s equity analysts estimated that U.S. stocks as a whole were fully valued. Today (10/26) they estimate that those same stocks are selling at a 40% discount. A year ago, the wise man at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo (home of the GMO mutual funds) predicted that U.S. stocks would negative real returns over the next 5-7 years. Today they estimate that their U.S. blue chip, international and emerging markets funds will all post returns substantially above the long-term U.S. market average. (You might choose to pooh-pooh such a claim since no one can see the future, except for the fact that The Economist
’s recent review of GMO’s forecasts over the past decade found they have been "proved almost entirely correct."). And a year ago, my options as an investor were substantially more limited than they are at the moment.All of which leads to me share 104 things to be happy about.
Reasons to be happy: Part I: There are 34 investment choices that you didn’t have one year ago
As the bear market grinds on and investors decide that the guarantee of "selling low" is better than the possibility of "selling lower" (or, God forbid, holding on), dozens of outstanding funds have re-opened their doors to new investors. Every fund on the list below re-opened in 2008. While not every one is a great option (Magellan, for example), a bunch of them are quite likely better than anything you own now.
Percentile rank w/in category
| Fund | Ticker
|
| One-year
| Five-year
| Ten-
|
Allianz NFJ Dividend Value
|
PNEAX
|
37
|
7
|
n/a
|
Allianz NFJ Small-Cap Value
|
PCVAX
|
12
|
4
|
18
|
Artisan International Value
|
ARTKX
|
5
|
4
|
n/a
|
Artisan Mid Value
|
ARTQX
|
12
|
4
|
n/a
|
Calamos Convertible
|
CCVIX
|
2
|
10
|
11
|
Delaware Small Cap Value
|
DEVLX
|
31
|
49
|
67
|
Dodge & Cox Balanced
|
DODBX
|
90
|
66
|
4
|
Dodge & Cox Stock
|
DODGX
|
83
|
62
|
2
|
Fidelity Advisor Mid Cap
|
FMCAX
|
97
|
83
|
18
|
Fidelity Magellan
|
FMAGX
|
96
|
92
|
53
|
FPA Crescent
|
FPACX
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
JPMorgan Mid Cap Equity
|
VSNGX
|
49
|
22
|
21
|
JPMorgan Mid Cap Value
|
JAMCX
|
28
|
37
|
n/a
|
Longleaf Partners
|
LLPFX
|
98
|
96
|
6
|
Matthews Asian Growth & Income
|
MACSX
|
1
|
34
|
10
|
Matthews Pacific Tiger
|
MAPTX
|
9
|
37
|
3
|
Oakmark Global
|
OAKGX
|
11
|
11
|
n/a
|
Oakmark International
|
OAKIX
|
23
|
46
|
5
|
Oakmark Internat’l Small Cap
|
OAKEX
|
19
|
24
|
1
|
Royce Low Priced Stock
|
RYLPX
|
73
|
56
|
7
|
Royce Microcap
|
RYOTX
|
69
|
23
|
10
|
Royce Opportunity
|
RYOFX
|
91
|
75
|
2
|
Schneider Small Cap Value
|
SCMVX
|
98
|
77
|
1
|
Sequoia
|
SEQUX
|
2
|
13
|
13
|
SSgA Emerging Markets
|
SSEMX
|
71
|
39
|
35
|
T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value
|
PRSVX
|
5
|
9
|
12
|
Third Avenue Internat’l Value
|
TAVIX
|
10
|
16
|
n/a
|
Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
|
TASCX
|
9
|
23
|
17
|
Tweedy, Browne Global Value
|
TBGVX
|
7
|
18
|
72
|
Vanguard Explorer
|
VEXPX
|
39
|
47
|
30
|
Vanguard Health Care
|
VGHCX
|
39
|
18
|
14
|
Wasatch Internat’l Opportunities
|
WAIOX
|
90
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
Wasatch Micro Cap
|
WMICX
|
88
|
62
|
1
|
Wasatch Micro Cap Value
|
WAMVX
|
81
|
9
|
n/a | ||||
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Reasons to be happy, Part II: Virtually every great closed fund now has a plausible substitute.
Reasons 35 – 42 are the promising clones or siblings to some of the five-star retail funds that remain closed. A number of fund families have tried to balance the interests of current and prospective shareholders by closing extant funds when their investing strategies reach their limits, but deploying the same management teams to new, nimbler sibling funds.
Artio (formerly Julius Baer) International I (BJBIX) might be replaced with Artio International II (JETAX), which is a near-clone of the original fund except that Artio II doesn’t invest in smaller cap companies.
Artisan Small Cap Value (ARTVX) might be replaced with Artisan Midcap Value (ARTQX), run by the same team with the same discipline. Midcap Value holds about 25% small caps.
Leuthold Core (LCORX) might be replaced with Leuthold Global (GLBLX), described by the fund’s manager as "Leuthold Core gone Global".
Royce Premier (RYPRX) might be replaced with newly reopened Royce Low-Priced (RYLPX), both of which are co-managed by Whitney George and both of which have greater midcap exposure than is usual for Royce funds.
Schroder U.S. Opportunies (SCUIX) might be replaced with Schroder U.S. Small & Mid Cap Opportunities (SMDVX), both of which are run by Jenny Jones and both of which show similar valuations, though the newer fund has greater exposure to mid-cap stocks.
Vanguard Capital Opportunity (VHCOX) and Vanguard Primecap (VPMCX) might be replaced with Vanguard Primecap Core (VPCCX) or Primecap Odyssey Stock (POSKX) are of which are five-star funds run by the same team. Core is one-tenth the size of Primecap and Odyssey has less than 1% of Primecap’s assets to haul around.
Reasons to be happy, Part III: First-rate firms are offering dozens of new, first-rate funds
Reasons 43 – 63 are simple reasons: New target date choices for investors who’d like to leave the driving to somebody else. Each of these fund families has launched at least four new target date funds in the past year:
For folks who want to make their own decisions, Reasons 64 – 101 are funds that have launched during 2008. Out of all the new-fund launches, I’ve highlighted the following because they offer some combination of great management teams, access to institutional investment managers, innovative strategies and/or reasonable expenses:
Reasons to be happy, Part IV: Jeremy Grantham is happy
Reason 102 is that Jeremy Grantham is happy, so you should be, too. For folks who don’t know Mr. Grantham, he’s one of the co-founders and aforementioned wise man of GMO, a large institutional investment operation that specializes in rigorous quantitative modeling. Mr. Grantham has been warning investors for years -– at least since the late 1990s -– that we were facing a financial storm of unimaginable proportions. He argued that the tech meltdown in the early part of this century was a partial palliative, but that the broad market had never corrected sufficiently to re-establish the attractiveness of investing in U.S. stocks.
Until now. On October 10th, Mr. Grantham offered the following observations in his quarterly letter to investors:
At under 1000 on the S&P 500, U.S. stocks are very reasonable buys for brave value managers willing to be early. The same applies to EAFE and emerging equities at October 10th prices, but even more so. History warns, though, that new lows are more likely than not. Fixed income has wide areas of very attractive, aberrant pricing. The dollar and the yen look okay for now, but the pound does not. Don’t worry at all about inflation. We can all save up our worries there for a couple of years from now and then really worry! Commodities may have big rallies, but the fundamentals of the next 18 months should wear them down to new two-year lows. As for us in asset allocation, we have made our choice: hesitant and careful buying at these prices and lower. Good luck with your decisions.
In a Morningstar interview, Grantham concluded that stocks hadn’t been this cheap since 1987. Investors Business Daily (10/23) described Grantham’s missive as "the most startling about-face of a bearish value manager."
IBD also noted that, one day before Grantham’s letter, the legendary "Robert Rodriguez . . . on Oct. 9 did something he hadn't done in an entire year. He bought some stocks" (Norm Alster, "Sharply Lower Stock Prices Turn Some Longtime Bears To Buyers," IBD, 10/23/2008). One day after Grantham’s letter, The New York Times quoted Marty Whitman as predicting "This is the opportunity of a lifetime. The most important securities are being given away" (Alex Berenson, "Those With a Sense of History May Find It’s Time to Invest," 10/16/2008).
Reasons to be happy, Part V: Rekenthaler speaks!
Reason 103 is the return of one of the investing world’s two great curmudgeons. (The other, Roy Weitz, remains on the scene to publish FundAlarm, moderate its discussion board and share the occasional bon mot with inquiring journalists.)
What, you might ask, is a curmudgeon? A venerable word (attested in the 1560s) of unknown origin. Taken literally, it’s that old guy on the porch who growls and shakes his cane at passing whippersnappers. That’s reflected in the most common definition of the world ("a crusty irascible cantankerous old person full of stubborn ideas") but Jon Winokur, editor of The Portable Curmudgeon (1992) sets the record straight:
A curmudgeon's reputation for malevolence is undeserved. They're neither warped nor evil at heart. They don't hate mankind, just mankind's absurdities . . . . . Nature, having failed to equip them with a serviceable denial mechanism, has endowed them with astute perception and sly wit. Curmudgeons are mockers and debunkers whose bitterness is a symptom rather than a disease. They can't compromise their standards and can't manage the suspension of disbelief necessary for feigned cheerfulness. Their awareness is a curse . . . . They not only refuse to applaud mediocrity, they howl it down with morose glee.
John Rekenthaler howled from atop The Rekenthaler Report, weekly, at Morningstar before being lured into the bowels of the beast by the promise of unlimited power and adulation as president of Morningstar Associates and now vice president of research and new product development. Late in October, The Rekenthaler Report returned to Morningstar.com.
A taste of vintage Rekenthaler:
April 1999: "Believe me, it can be hard being the eternal cynic. Unfortunately, the darn world keeps pinning me into that position." That came near the end of a column in which he denounced (1) "this ‘invest in what you know’ pablum," (2) another trendy investment idea from his former employer, Nuveen, and (3) "easy slogans" about the value of international diversification. He did conclude by encouraging folks to read Paul Krugman’s book, The Accidental Theorist, which put John just a bit ahead of the Nobel committee in recognizing Krugman’s work.
August 1999: "By now, you may have gathered that there is no brotherly love lost between ... John Bogle and . . . John Brennan. (While it’s tempting to view the feud as a personality clash between the fiery Bogle and the icy Brennan, the truth is probably more primal: two alpha males, one tree.)" He ended that essay by owning up to a dunderheaded remark he’d made in the preceding column: "Good thing that I’m the only one who writes the Rekenthaler Report, because if I saw such nonsense elsewhere I’d toast that idiot."
And the re-emergent Rekenthaler:
October 2008: "Moody’s CEO Raymond McDaniel wrote a year ago in a presentation to the company’s directors, that ‘Analysts and Managing Directors are continually pitched by bankers, issues, investors – all with reasonable arguments – whose views can color credit judgment, sometimes improving it, other times degrading it (we ‘drink the kool-aid’).’
For that reason, I am made uneasy when Morningstar’s fund analysts conduct the absolutely necessary step of interviewing portfolio managers, and am positively queasy when they hop on a plane and take what is also the necessary step of visiting the management companies. The notion of ‘more information is always useful’ is a beguiling one, but dangerous – and all too frequently incorrect in practice. Sometimes, less is indeed more."
By happy coincidence, Roy and John reside 1740 miles apart in Los Angeles and Chicago, respectively. The Rocky Mountains serve as a convenient safety buffer and territorial marker separating the Twin Titans. There was only one reported encounter between the two. It occurred in the late 90s, when a regrettable number of folks –- Roy and John not included -– thought that "diversifying my portfolio" meant buying shares of all ten Janus funds. Smelling a rat, John hopped on a plane and visited the management team at the Janus headquarters:
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Reasons to be happy, Part VI: The double-secret-reverse-end-around worked!
Reason 104: I spent Sunday afternoon watching the mighty flag football "Balcons" defend their 4-0 record against visiting Calamus-Wheatland. (I tried suggesting to my son that perhaps his team’s name was actually "Falcons," but with all the certainty of an eight-year-old he denounced the very thought.) The Balcons, standing tall in the Davenport Dad’s Club third- and fourth-grade division, took the field on a surprisingly wintry day.
An admirable collection of boys and girls fought for 45 minutes in conditions that would have convinced the Packers and Bears to stay home. Forty degree temperatures and a steady 40 mph wind sent trash cans, corn stalks and the occasional wingback tumbling across the field. In the end, the Balcons prevailed (32-0, though no one keeps score) over the stout-hearted but out-gunned warriors from Wheatland.
Truth be told, even in the absence of the other 103, an afternoon with my son and the lovely home-cooked dinner with friends afterward makes me feel blessed beyond the ability of markets to mar or money to improve. Please insert your own Reason 104 here (surely you have one), and treasure it.
Briefly noted:
Janus announced that 9% of its workers – though none of its portfolio managers or analysts – are losing their jobs. That’s bad, though a mere shadow of the recent estimate of 200,000 job cuts on Wall Street. If borne out, that would represent almost 25% of the Street’s workforce (AP, "Wall Street layoffs could surge past 200,000," 10/23/2008).
In another blow to the "it’s not a stock market, it’s a market of stocks" crowd, 80% of Vanguard’s 50 index funds and ETFs are leading their peers so far in 2008 (through 10/24). An astounding 97% of Vanguard’s index funds have above-average returns over the past five years.
The month’s best headline comes from MutualFundWire.com: "Eight Fido Dwarf-Tossers Reach a Settlement with the SEC" (10/8/2008). The (mostly former) Fidelity employees got in trouble for accepting improper gifts somehow tied to "a lavish bachelor party, with included dwarf-tossing, held in Miami for one of the accused."
McCain wins! McCain wins! McCain wins! Sort of. At the very least, in the great battle of Red versus Blue mutual funds, McCain’s entry can hold aloft a proud banner reading “We’re not dead yet!” I’ve reported before on the presence of competing fund families: one Red (represented by the Free Enterprise Action fund, FEAOX) and one Blue (represented by the Blue Fund, BLUFX) which between them represented “equal opportunity idiocy.” The Free Enterprise Fund bought shares of companies for the purpose of going to shareholder meetings and ranting about socialism. The Blue Funds bought shares of companies that “think blue and act blue.” The question was “which is more idiotic?” And now the verdict is in: the Red fund, with few assets and high expenses, has survived the collapse of both of its Blue counterparts. By virtue of having lost only a third of its value, it is also posting strong relative performances both year-to-date and over the past 12 months.
Fidelity launches four more funds that you can’t have: Fido announced the creation of four new "Central" funds, which can be invested-in only by other Fidelity funds. The most intriguing of the four, All–Sector Equity Fund, is a fund of Fidelity’s sector funds.
Effective at the end of this year, Fidelity Japan Smaller Companies (FJSCX) will lose long-term manager Kenichi Mizushita. The fund returned 240% in 1999 and assets increased fifteen-fold. It promptly lost 50% in 2000 and saw an 80% decline in assets under management. Mizushita had a long run of strong performances followed by several years badly disappointing years. He is being succeeded by Nick Price, who runs the European version of the Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa fund.
Historically September and October are the two worst months for the U.S. stock market. I’m keeping that as a good thought for the weeks and months ahead.
If you’ve got a thought – happy or otherwise – to share, you can either post a note on FundAlarm’s vibrant discussion group and drop us a line through Roy’s feedback link.
Take care. I’ll be back just after Thanksgiving, with hopes that we all have lots more to be thankful about.
David
| NEW Discussed this month: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rydex Managed Futures (RYMFX): Here’s a surprisingly tough question. If a fund is making outrageous amounts of money in the worst market in 80 years using a strategy so odd that Morningstar reports that the entire portfolio only accounts for 17% of the entire portfolio (?), is that an argument for running toward the fund or away from it? | ||
Accessor Frontier Markets Fund seeks capital growth. The Fund will use an "index-like approach" which will try to replicate the country and industry allocations of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Frontier Emerging Markets Index. The fund may invest directly in those markets, or indirectly through "index vehicles such as structured notes, exchange traded funds, or exchange traded notes and or via the shares of other investment companies securities. If no other option is available, they can invest in shares of companies with exposure to the target markets. It will be managed by a team from Forward Management. There are multiple share classes ("A," Adviser and Investor) with different expense ratios but the same investment minimums: $4000 for regular accounts, lowered to $2,000 for regular accounts enrolled in eDelivery, $2,000 for Coverdell Education Savings accounts, and $ 500 for Automatic Investment Plan accounts. Baron International Growth Fund will be sort of the international version of Baron Partners. It will be a diversified fund that invests in developed and developing countries, with emerging markets exposure capped at 30%. It can buy stocks of any capitalization, but "expects to focus on small- and mid-sized growth companies with market capitalizations of $10 billion or less." They look for companies whose stock has the "potential to increase in value 100% within four to five subsequent years." Michael Kass, the portfolio manager, joined Baron’s in 2007 to develop an international growth strategy. From 1996-2003, Mr. Kass co-managed the Furman Selz Large Cap Growth portfolios, and beginning in 1998, he co-founded the Artemis Funds, a long-short strategy with a similar discipline as Large Cap Growth. Expenses estimated at 1.50% with a minimum invest of $2000, which is reduced to $500 for accounts with an automatic investing plan. Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund will seek capital appreciation by investing globally in the stocks of companies principally engaged in the energy, metals, and agriculture group of industries. Peter Hirsch is manager; he has been an analyst with Fidelity since 1995. Expenses estimated at 1.75% with a $2500 minimum. I’d probably first look at T. Rowe Price New Era (PRNEX), which has a long record, lower expenses and essentially the same mandate. Harbor Target Retirement Income and Harbor Target Retirement 2010 through 2050 funds are funds of other Harbor funds. They’re set up in five-year increments and the entire series is set to launch in early January. The minimums are not yet final but include a pro-rated share of the underlying funds’ expenses plus 0.37%, subject to a waiver that seems designed to keep the whole package under 1%. The minimum investment is $2500. In honor of Mr. Rekenthaler’s re-emergence (see above), I’ll note that he once described Harbor as "the best little fund company in America" and concluded "Field of Dreams was close [but] not quite right: Heaven isn't in Iowa, it's in Ohio." As a resident of Iowa and native of Pittsburgh, I generously forgive Mr. R. for his geographic lunacy. Jones Villalta Opportunity Fund seeks capital appreciation by investing in U.S. stocks drawn from the universe of the 1000 largest cap companies. A preliminary quant screen reduces the list to about 150 names, whereupon the adviser does a "bottom up" calculation of intrinsic value. The fund will be co-managed by Thomas Villalta, former Quantitative Securities Analyst with the City and County of San Francisco Employees Retirement System and RBC Dain Rausher analyst, and Stephen M. Jones, former RBC Dain Rauscher executive and Austin magazine columnist. $1000 minimum, e.r. capped at 1.25%. Madison Mosaic Small/Mid-Cap Fund seeks long-term growth of capital by investing n small and mid-sized companies, which they operationalize as companies with stock capitalizations between $200 million and $12 billion. They have a growth-at-a-reasonable-price discipline and anticipate a portfolio of 40-80 names. The manager will be Richard Eisinger, who joined Madison in 1997 and who manages the four-star Madison Mosaic Mid-cap (GTSGX) fund. $1000 minimum for a regular account, $500 for an IRA and $100 for a Coverdell (CESA) account with an automatic investment plan. Expenses will be an entirely-reasonable 1.25%. Midas Perpetual Portfolio seeks to preserve and increase the purchasing power value of its shares over the long term. It will invest a fixed target percentage of its total assets in each of gold and silver; Swiss franc assets; hard asset securities; large capitalization growth stocks; and dollar assets. Gold and silver investments include bullion, bullion type coins, and ETFs. Hard asset securities include U.S. and foreign companies dealing primarily in real estate and natural resources. Oh, puh-leeze . . . Midas was able to fast-track this fund by taking their money market fund and rechristening it as the Perpetual Portfolio. Do you suppose that the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) adviser, whose fund’s mandate seems surprisingly close to this one’s, might have grounds for a trademark infringement? Managed by a team from Midas Management, whose other funds invest – ineptly, some might editorialize – in these same areas. $1000 investment minimum and 1.16% expenses after a fee waiver. Mirzam Capital Appreciation Fund will seek long-term capital appreciation by investing in U.S. and foreign equity securities of companies that have long-term growth characteristics and that generate strong cash flows. The fund will be managed by Albert Meyer, a former analyst for the Prudent Bear fund and Michiganian of the Year (1995) and William "Dusty" Culbertson, former manager at 2nd Opinion Research and former IBM Business Consultant. Relatively high fees (north of 1.75%, based on an incomplete prospectus) and $5000 investment minimum. NETS™ BOVESPA Index, NETS FTSE Canada, NETS IPC (Mexico), NETS OMXS30 (Sweden), NETS SLI (Switzerland), NETS FTSE CNBC Global 300 and about a dozen others. All of which is to say that Northern Trust has decided to get into the international ETF business in a big way. Expenses not yet set. RNC Genter Dividend Value Fund will seek both capital growth and current income by investing in 25-50 large cap, dividend paying stocks. The fund’s initial portfolio screen focuses on the quality of the companies’ dividends, as measured by tax status, growth and stability. The adviser’s separately managed accounts, using the same discipline, have pretty handily beaten the Russell 1000 Value index over the past four years. The fund will be co-managed by James "Rocky" Barber and John Marshall, both of whom seem to have pretty solid backgrounds as portfolio managers at William Blair and PIMCO, respectively. $25,000 minimum investment, e.r. cappred at 1.50%. Victoria 1522 Fund (Adviser class) will seek long-term capital appreciation by investing in the common and preferred stocks of emerging markets countries, though they can also invest in companies which make the majority of their money in such countries. The manager is Josephine Jiménez, who began her emerging markets career at Emerging Markets Management as an analyst and portfolio manager of investments in Latin America, Europe, and the Philippines. In 1991, she joined as a founding partner of the emerging markets business at Montgomery Asset Management where she served as portfolio manager of the Montgomery Emerging Markets Fund until 2003 when Wells Capital Management ("Wells") acquired the business. She continued as portfolio manager at Wells through 2006, when she left to form Victoria Emerging Markets, LLC and Victoria 1522 Investments, LP. $2500 minimum with an e.r. of 1.90%. |
| NEW Discussed this month: | ||
|---|---|---|
| ING Corporate Leaders B (LEXCX): If you’re fearful of a depression, it might be sense to look at the only fund in existence whose portfolio was constructed in the midst of the last, great depression and hasn’t changed in the intervening 73 years. | ||