Dear friends,
Welcome to the time of long nights, holiday cheer and ever-buoyant markets. Right? I mean, these are the best few months for stocks, aren’t they? And this is one of the best parts of the Presidential cycle, isn’t it? And Gentle Ben loves us, doesn’t he?
Yeesh.
Keeping your head, keeping your gains . . . they both make sense to me.
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs . . .
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you . . .
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting. . .
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it . . ."
Kipling, whose poem "If..." I’m quoting, was in many ways a regrettable man but he does capture a certain contrarian spirit that animates the managers of the better hedge-like mutual funds. Here’s a quick measure of head-keeping behaviors by some of them. From the start of September through the middle of November, the Total Stock Market dropped 23 times and lost about 3% in value. Here’s a quick snapshot of how the self-consciously "hedged" mutual funds performed on days when the market was tanking.
|
Number of days that it ignored a falling market |
Total return, 9/4 – 11/12 |
|
|
Wintergreen |
6 / 23 |
4.74 |
|
Nakoma Absolute Return |
11 / 23 |
3.62 |
|
New Century Alternative Strategies |
19 / 23 |
2.94 |
|
Leuthold Asset Allocation |
5 / 23 |
2.43 |
|
Hussman Strategic Growth |
14 / 23 |
(0.42) |
|
QCM Absolute Return |
7 / 23 |
(1.08) |
|
Penn Avenue Event Driven |
6 / 23 |
(1.19) |
|
Utopia Core |
10 / 23 |
(1.38) |
All of the hedged funds substantially outperformed the market on down days and a number of them – roughly, those that ignored 10 or more of the 23 down days – seem to be operating with a fair degree of independence. Beyond that, most of them – Nakoma, Wintergreen, Leuthold, Utopia, New Century – have also outperformed the Total Market for the whole year while a couple others virtually tied it.
November was a much tougher period for funds. Even after a ferocious two-day rally late in the month, the U.S. stock market – measured by Vanguard’s Total Stock Market (VTSMX) index fund – was down by 4.3% in November (through 11/28). A handful of funds managed to make money for their investors this month:
T. Rowe Price Africa and Middle East (TRAMX) made 2.76% on the month and landed in the top 1% of diversified emerging markets funds. Which, of course, it isn’t. It’s also ended in the bottom 1% of all diversified emerging markets funds for the past week, which is similarly irrelevant. The fund has made 19% since its September debut.
Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) earned 1.82% which placed it in the top 6% of long-short funds on the month. James Market Neutral (JAMNX) up 4.29%, appears to have been the top long-short fund despite a tepid long-term record and Morningstar’s current insistence that it’s holding no short positions. Icon Long/Short (IOLIX), on the other hand, managed to lose substantially more than the market despite a very fine long-term record (and Morningstar’s assertion that they, too, have no short positions).
Pinnacle Value (PVFIX), John Deysher’s cash-heavy small value fund, returned 0.25% and earned a spot in the top 1% of all small cap funds.
As has been routinely the case, Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX) posted a gain of 1.26% for the month.
T. Rowe Price on the cutting edge? Who would have guessed?
The Wall Street Journal
is heralding a new class of international investments – "frontier market funds" ("Searching for Shelter on the ‘Frontier,’" November 29, 2007). Frontier markets are those places just slightly scarier than emerging markets. Places like Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka, where "savvy investors are now looking ... to reap the rewards of early entry into the up-and-coming places within the asset class." The article argues that vehicles for investing in such markets are few and far between: HSBC Holdings will launch a fund in January ’08 and there’s a single closed-end offering, Advance Frontier Markets. As it turns out, almost all of the investment opportunities mentioned in the article fall within the domain of the aforementioned T. Rowe Price Africa and Middle East (TRAMX) fund. Perhaps "T. Rowe Price Frontier Markets" would have had more of a cutting edge feel to it?Spectra Funds: On the fine art of dodging unpleasant facts
The good folks at the Spectra funds, run by Fred Alger & Co., are preening just a bit in their current ads. Next to a drawing of a slightly-antiquated PC is the headline, "We were on the web before it was worldwide." Ahh, those staunch visionaries report:

"Talk about a no-brainer . . . with bottom-up research, careful analysis, and a little creative independence, we aim high and look to get in early."
Oddly, they seem to skip the "and lose our shirts" part. Their flagship Spectra N fund managed to lose 32.5%, 17.5% and 36% in quick succession between 2000 and 2002. Anyone foolish enough to invest a $1000 at the start of 2000 had $357 at the end of 2002. Despite a string of strong performances since then, the hypothetical investor would still be in the red today – the account would total about $958 while the effect of inflation means that you’d need at least $1250 in the account just to break-even.
The ad doesn’t mention any particular fund’s performance and since the disastrous years at the start of the decade are now dropping out of the five year calculations while "the bubble years" are still included in the ten year figures, it’s really easy to overlook some seriously unpleasant possibilities.
I'm getting dizzy just watching them.
I noted in the November Annex that Janus’s advertising stresses the fact that their managers are invested right alongside their shareholders, while at the same time skipping over the fact that high-profile Janus managers – 13 of them at the time I wrote – were leaving in a steady stream. Add #14, Minyoung Sohn, manager of Growth & Income (JAGIX) and Fundamental Equity (JAEIX) to the outflow. This has to be a particularly discouraging departure since Sohn was named by Morningstar as one of four "rising stars of the mutual fund world" and a "young lion." The Janus press release on the subject, "Janus Announces Investment Team Appointments," says only that Sohn "decided to leave."
There might be a whiff of desperation in the accompanying announcement that Janus plans to merge Fundamental Equity into Janus Research (JAMRX). How often, after all, does a company voluntarily choose to dissolve a five-star fund with over a billion in assets? Research is an analyst-driven fund where Fundamental Equity was manager-driven. Research is classified as large-growth, Fundamental is large-blend. Research has a much lower market-cap, higher turnover, and less concentrated portfolio. Morningstar’s "similar funds" software doesn’t even place Fundamental on the list of 100 funds most similar to Research. Which is to say, this doesn’t appear to be a simple union of two nearly-identical funds.
Bob Frick, a senior writer at Kiplinger’s, is sanguine about the departures: "The good news for those who own Janus funds is that the bench building that began in 2000 has left a talented pool of portfolio managers and analysts who can assume the vacant seats" ("Janus: On the Road to Improvement," 11/09/07). Morningstar is noticeably less comfortable with Janus’s "deteriorating corporate culture" and has lowered their "stewardship grade" from C to D ("A Disappointing Turn for Janus," 11/12/07).
Janus, apparently unconcerned, lists only one investment position opening on their corporate website (for a European equities analyst). Although they are also advertising for an intern so maybe they do have a secret plan for dealing with another manager departure.
Nakoma Absolute Return got a nice review from TheStreet.com
Roger Nusbaum appears to have had an extended interview with Nakoma’s Mark Fedenia and Greg Schroeder in which they covered many of the same topics that they spoke with me about (e.g., the possibility of using Nakoma as a bond substitute in your portfolio) as well as some technical stuff (a flexible threshold for stop orders on their positions) that I’d hadn’t heard. Nusbaum reproduces a striking graphic that shows the returns of NARFX against those of the S&P 500:

He concludes that "Integrating a fund like this into a diversified equity portfolio should reduce volatility and increase risk-adjusted return. This is an important concept if the market is going to be more volatile for the time being, especially if we are late in the stock-market cycle." I agree. A link to his article is posted at the "news and information" page of Nakomafunds.com.
While I’m on the subject, I’ll also note that Nakoma offers some unusually sophisticated shareholder communications. They’re the only fund I know that has a quarterly conference call for investors and their monthly newsletters are quite detailed about their macro-level views of the market.
Finally, Nakoma announced that it would not have a capital gains distribution in 2007 but will pay out about $.08 per share in income.
David
| NEW Discussed this month: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Edgewood Growth (EGFFX): You really shouldn’t be too surprised that Edgewood has returned nearly 24% over the first 11 months of 2007. That’s about twice the return of its peer funds, which is almost exactly the margin of victory that Edgewood’s management team has been returning steadily for the past 20 years. | ||
| Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap (WAEMX): So, you’re tired of all of this namby-pamby talk about carefully-hedged bets? You’ve always thought small caps are intriguing? You know deep in your bones that emerging markets are the next big thing? You’ve always had a hankerin’ for some of that Moroccan small cap activity? Well, good news, pilgrim: Wasatch has deployed a very experienced foreign small cap investor to lead you to that promised land. | ||
Alpine Dynamic Transformations Fund seeks capital appreciation by investing in U.S. and foreign companies that the Adviser believes offer superior growth potential because they’re entering or on the verge of entering an accelerated growth period catalyzed by transformation or innovation. The manager will be Stephen Lieber, Alpine’s 81-year-old Chief Investment Officer and co-manager of the tepid Dynamic Balance fund. Just another plug for the liberal arts: Mr. Lieber received a Bachelor’s degree in English (with honors) from Williams College, and attended the Harvard University Graduate School of Arts & Sciences. Expenses, after waivers, of 1.35%. Minimum initial investment is $1,000. | |
Aston/M|B Enhanced Equity Income Fund will seek total return by investing primarily in a diversified U.S. stock portfolio and by writing covered call options on a substantial portion of the Fund's long equity portfolio. Option premiums and dividend income are expected to constitute a significant portion of total return. Managers will be Ronald Altman and Paul Pfeiffer, both of whom have a lot of investment experience but none in running a fund. Expenses, after waivers, of 1.10%. Minimum investment are $2500 for regular accounts, $500 for retirement, college and gift accounts. | |
Autopilot Managed Growth Fund describes itself as a "multi-cap equity fund." You might think that the "Autopilot" moniker implies some sort of passive investing strategy. Oh, no, it means something closer to "don’t bother us," as in " [t]he adviser's goal is that shareholders will put their investment in the Fund on ‘autopilot’ by investing for the long term and deferring day-to-day investment decisions to the active management of the adviser." I was kinda hoping that the adviser’s goal would be enriching his shareholders. Silly Dave. The managers are John D. Rhoads ("Until 2007 he was a Certified Financial Planner . . . currently, Mr. Roads is a member of the National Association of Active Investment Managers"), David Lucca ("he is registered under the Commodities Exchange Act as an associated person"), and Peter Mauthe (also an "associated person"). Expense ratio is 2.37%. The minimum initial $10,000 for regular accounts and $4,000 for retirement plans and automatic investment plans. | |
Dorfman Value Fund will pursue long-term capital appreciation by investing in undervalued US and foreign stocks. The manager will look mostly are p/e, p/b and p/s ratios. John Dorfman is the portfolio manager. He runs Thunderstorm Capital, which manages about $200 million for rich folks. He was also a columnist for the Wall Street Journal (’97 – ’02) and Bloomberg (’97 – ’07), he’s written nine books and served as an analyst and portfolio manager at Dreman Value Management from 1997 to 2002. Mr. Dorfman is a graduate of Princeton University and holds a M.F.A. from Columbia University (I’ll consider that a liberal arts plug if he does well, otherwise forget I mentioned it). 1.99% e.r. The minimum initial investment in the Fund is $10,000 for IRA, Keogh and UTMA accounts, and $25,000 for all other accounts. | |
Fidelity Dynamic Strategies Fund seeks to maximize total return by investing in a mix of stocks (including domestic, international and emerging markets), bonds (short-term, high yield and inflation protected bonds, and floating rate loans), and cash-like instruments. They’re looking to outperform a benchmark that’s 50% stocks, 40% bonds and 10% cash. Andrew Dierdorf and Jurrien Timmer will manage the fund. They haven’t run a fund before but appear to be relatively high-powered quant geeks at Fido. 1.02% e.r., $2500 minimum, reduced to $200 for IRAs with the proviso that you then need to invest at least $200/month until you reach $2500. | |
Kinetics Multi-Disciplinary Fund will look for total return consistent with capital preservation. It seems mostly to focus on short-term bonds. The fund will have a net long fixed-income bias, but opportunistically hedges its fixed-income positions with options, derivatives and/or short positions. It may also invest in distressed debt (i.e., debt rated below B- by S&P) and equity securities. The managers will be Murray Stahl (co-Founder of Horizon Asset Management, and Co-Portfolio Manager for the Kinetics Paradigm, Small Cap Opportunities, and Market Opportunities funds), and Paul Berman (who has been specializing in M&A and distressed debt sorts of stuff). Expenses not to exceed 1.74%. The minimum initial investment for both regular accounts and individual retirement accounts is $2,500 ($2,000 for Coverdell Education Savings Accounts). | |
Leuthold Global Fund will seeks total return by investing flexibly between global stocks (30-70% of the portfolio), bonds (30-70%) and money market instruments (10-20%). The fund will be quantitatively driven and can short stocks. It will be run by a team of the usual suspects (Steve Leuthold, Douglas Ramsey, Matt Paschke). Expense ratio of 2.07%, assuming 0.2% expenses to repay dividends on shorted stocks. $10,000 investment minimum, $1000 for IRAs or Coverdells. They expect to launch in late January. | |
Oberweis Asia Opportunities Fund invests in the stocks of companies incorporated in Asia, trading on Asian exchanges or deriving at least half their business from Asia. The prospectus notes "many of the companies also meet certain of the Oberweis Octagon investment criteria," which sounds kinda mushy. The fund will be managed by a team whose members also manage China Opportunities and International Opportunities. 2.49% expense ratio, with a minimum investment of $1,000, $500 for IRAs and $100 for accounts with an automatic investment plan. | |
ProFunds China, UltraChina, Short China, and UltraShort China will allow unusually well-informed (or spectacularly delusional) investors who are confident that they know what’s going to happen in the world’s most opaque market to make leveraged, inverse, and leveraged inverse bets on its direction. Expenses not set. $15,000 investment minimum. | |
Satuit Small Cap Fund will be a small cap blend fund run by Robert Sullivan, manager of Satuit Microcap. In one of those incredibly weird contortions, this fund has a seven year track record, and a miserable one at that. Up until November1st, this was the World Genomics fund, which has an annualized loss of 18% per year since inception. Satuit just bought it and, with a straight face, declared, "The Fund has the same investment strategy as the Predecessor Fund. However, the Predecessor Fund's investment strategy was to invest at least 80% of the Fund's assets in genomics related issues." Including large caps such as Amgen. Large cap biotech. Small cap diversified. Yeah, those seem about the same. The major upside is that Satuit Microcap is excellent (five-star, top decile returns) but has a 5% front load, the avoidance of which takes some effort. This seems to be a no-load fund (but a 2% redemption fee on shares held less than one year) run with the same strategy. I’m hopeful of talking with the manager in early December and I’ll pass along what I’ve learned in the January Annex. 1.90% expense ratio, $1000 minimum. | |
Vanguard Managed Payout Growth Focus, Managed Payout Growth and Distribution, and Managed Payout Distribution Focus funds are part of the new wave of funds concerned with the income distribution, rather than capital accumulation, phase of one’s investing career. Each fund combines a managed distribution policy (to provide investors with regular cash flows) with "an endowment-like investment strategy." The funds will distribute 3%, 5% or 7% of the account balance each year, depending on the fund. The portfolios invest very broadly, monthly payments are stable throughout the year and then adjusted in January to reflect the fund’s performance over the preceding three years (which, by the way, are the same rules that govern Augustana’s college endowment). Of necessity, the funds need to pursue market neutrality and Vanguard rightly describes their portfolio management as "complex." Expense ratio of 0.58%, $25,000 minimum investment. |
| NEW Discussed this month: | ||
|---|---|---|
| I’m not highlighting any Stars in the Shadows this month. There are two really intriguing funds in the pipeline, but I haven’t been able to finish my conversations with their managers yet. Rather than rush a half-done analysis, I’ll offer a twofer to welcome the New Year. | ||