| (1) Do I want some durn machine picking my small cap stocks? Well, yes, probably you do. The small cap universe is large, volatile and poorly-researched. Relying on machines to sift reams of data and make thousands of comparisons is a sensible way to address those challenges. And many fund shops have successfully done so: Bogle, Bridgeway, and n/i Numeric Investors among them.
(2) Do I want Vanguard’s durn machine to be the one? Well, yes, that would be sensible. The model used here has been pretty successful in generating above-average returns (top quartile for its peer group, nearly 14% per year over the past decade) with only average risk for Vanguard Strategic Equity. The difference is that Strategic Equity focuses on mid-caps rather than small caps. But, again, the experience of firms such as Bridgeway and Numeric Investors suggests that the formulae used with mid-caps seems to work about as well with small caps. (3) Do I want to be dumping money into small caps right now? That’s the hardest question. Roy and I seem to agree that the best answer is “that’s a hard question.” Whatever you decide, try not to invest in small caps (or commodities, oil or emerging markets) just because they made money for someone else over the past five years. |